While the government is hoping tourism can drive the economy during its "Amazing Thailand Grand Tourism and Sports Year 2025" campaign, the industry has been hit by several setbacks, resulting in slower growth since the pandemic.
Early this year, Chinese actor Wang Xing was kidnapped and taken to a scam centre in Myanmar near the Thai border. Though he was later rescued, safety concerns spread widely across Chinese social media and have lingered, hampering tourism sentiment.
Chartered flights from China were reportedly cancelled afterwards, while the number of Chinese tourists has significantly declined year-on-year since the kidnapping.
As Thailand starts to feel the heat from US President Donald Trump's widespread tariff scheme for imports, global economic uncertainty has increased and tourism industry officials worry about sentiment.
Q: WHY IS THE THAI ECONOMY SO SENSITIVE TO THE CHINESE MARKET?
The Thai economy has been reliant on the tourism industry to drive GDP, and especially the Chinese market, which is the largest outbound tourist market in the world.
The nation started to gain a massive flow of Chinese visitors when the film Lost In Thailand topped the mainland box office in 2012, with the storyline depicting many destinations in Thailand.
In 2012, Thailand welcomed 22.3 million foreign tourists, of which only 2.7 million or 12% were from China, but the number consistently grew along with other international arrivals in the following years.
By 2019, Thailand tallied almost 40 million tourists, with more than 10 million coming from China.
During the pandemic, Thailand's economy suffered greatly as a result of its dependence on the tourism industry, as China closed its borders longer than other countries.
The mainland posted sluggish economic growth, especially in the real estate sector, as it reopened its economy slower than neighbouring countries.
Thailand started offering visa-free entry for Chinese tourists in late 2023, hoping to lift the market. Thailand recorded only 3.5 million Chinese arrivals that year, less than the forecast of 4-4.4 million.
Again affected by the silver screen, the Chinese expressed concerns about human trafficking as portrayed in the popular crime thriller No More Bets in 2023. The movie depicts people being deceived into working in scam centres in Southeast Asia, and it grossed a hefty take at the Chinese box office.
Chatter about the film revived following Wang Xing's disappearance this year.
Q: HOW DO SAFETY CONCERNS AFFECT THE INDUSTRY?
According to the Tourism and Sports Ministry, the Chinese market declined by 24% in the first quarter year-on-year, recording 1.33 million arrivals.
The number of visitors from Hong Kong and Macau also dropped by 22.5% and 21% year-on-year, respectively.
The growth rate of the Chinese market was outpaced by Malaysian tourists in recent weeks.
Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, advisory chairman of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, said human trafficking and the earthquake in March sent shockwaves through the tourism industry.
Concerns about safety in Thailand continue to be widely discussed on Chinese social media, he said.
Despite the government's initiative to address call centre scams and an official visit from Chinese President Xi Jinping, Mr Sisdivachr said those efforts have not been enough to restore confidence.
He said another challenge is China encouraging its citizens to take domestic trips instead of travelling abroad, while US tariff hikes have some potential tourists eager to save their budget to brace for the possible impact.
Pinyot Pibulsonggram, head of commercial at Vietjet Thailand, said this year Chinese passengers on the airline have declined by 15-20% compared with last year.
He said chartered flights, which typically operate from China's second-tier cities, recorded the largest decrease due to weakened demand.
Safety concerns along with worries about a downbeat economy affected not only Vietjet Thailand, but also other low-cost carriers that have extensive route networks in China, said Mr Pinyot.
"The growth of the inbound Chinese market this year does not appear as promising as it did last year," he said.
However, the airline is maintaining its capacity for Thailand-China flights in order to hold its slots at key Chinese airports.
Vietjet Thailand will pivot to promoting these routes to Thai tourists instead, as the outbound market has started to flock to China thanks to the permanent visa-free agreement between the two countries, said Mr Pinyot.
The Thai Travel Agents Association said many Chinese tour companies have been heavily discounting airfares for Thai tourists after those allotted seats were left unsold in the Chinese market.
Some Thai carriers have shifted to other destinations to substitute for China, such as Japan and India.
Q: WAS THERE ANY CHANGE IN LABOUR DAY BOOKINGS?
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) previously predicted an uptick in Chinese tourists in May, banking on the Labour Day holiday.
The agency also plans to run more traditional tourism marketing campaigns, utilising tour companies as a driver for the market from second-tier cities in China, in addition to promoting Thailand via online platforms among independent tourists.
Natthriya Thaweewong, the permanent tourism secretary, asked the TAT to revise the tourism promotional plan for the second half of this year to combat the Chinese market slump and widespread concern about US tariffs.
Mr Sisdivachr said forward bookings for Labour Day remained relatively stable, with only a slight improvement attributed to the long holiday period.
Mr Pinyot said the average load factor for Chinese flights on Vietjet Thailand during Labour Day should hover around 85%, but mostly from huge demand from Thai passengers.
He said Thai passengers account for 30-40% of total passengers on the route, compared with 5-10% in the past.
Vietjet Thailand operates scheduled flights to four Chinese cities -- Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Guangzhou -- and chartered services to 4-5 other Chinese cities.
"If there was an uptick in demand between May and July, we would have received new requests from Chinese travel agents for chartered flights by now. The airline has heard nothing from them," said Mr Pinyot.
This signals it could be difficult for the Chinese market to reach the 6.7 million arrivals recorded last year, he said.
The industry may have to rely on the high season in the final quarter as a last resort, and the government and officials should start launching marketing campaigns now to restore confidence, said Mr Pinyot.
The Chinese market is likely to improve, given its massive population and the attractive tourism experiences Thailand offers, he said.
