World's largest earthquake drill will see 10.2 million people in California prepare for an 'INEVITABLE' tremor that could devastate the area in the 'next several decades'

  • The Great Shakeout drill will happen at 10:19 PST (18:19 BST/13:19 EST) today
  • It is based on a magnitude-7.8 earthquake striking the San Andreas fault
  • But experts warn that a similar earthquake could also affect Northern California
  • By 2043, there will be a 72% chance of an earthquake of magnitude-6.7 of larger in California

The world's largest earthquake drill will take place today, in which 10.2 million people in California will practice what to do if a massive quake hits.

The 'Great Shakeout' is an annual drill that happens in California, but this year's event will be the biggest yet.

It comes after scenario experts predicted that a magnitude-7 earthquake is 'inevitable' and likely to happen in Southern California in the next several decades.

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The world's largest earthquake drill will take place today, in which 10.2 million people in California will practice what to do if a massive quake hits. Pictured is a map showing the intensity of potential earthquakes in the US

The world's largest earthquake drill will take place today, in which 10.2 million people in California will practice what to do if a massive quake hits. Pictured is a map showing the intensity of potential earthquakes in the US

THE GREAT SHAKEOUT 

The Great Shakeout will happen at 10:19 PST (18:19 BST/13:19 EST), during which time 20 million people – 10.2 million of which will be in California – will practice what to do if a quake strikes. 

The drill is based on a scenario in which a magnitude 7.8 scenario earthquake strikes on the San Andreas fault in Southern California.

People in schools, college, federal and local agencies and private businesses will take part in the drill, which will last around a minute. 

During the drill, participants will be told to 'drop, cover and hold on.' 

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The Great Shakeout will happen at 10:19 PST (18:19 BST/13:19 EST), during which time 20 million people – 10.2 million of which will be in California – will practice what to do if a quake strikes.

Speaking to NBC News, Jason Ballmann, a spokesman for the Southern California Earthquake Centre, said: 'I think we've seen with recent disasters in the past couple of months - these big hurricanes and the Mexico earthquakes in September, and the wildfires that are still happening in California - the need to be prepared is so important.'

The drill is based on a scenario in which a magnitude 7.8 earthquake strikes on the San Andreas fault in Southern California.

People in schools, college, federal and local agencies and private businesses will take part in the drill, which will last around a minute.

While the drill will replicate an earthquake in Southern California, experts say that a similar quake could happen on the massive fault lines that lie across the Bay Area in Northern California.

David Schwartz, a geologist with the United State Geological Survey (USGS), said: 'The Bay Area sits right in the boundary zone between the Pacific plate and the North American plate.

'They're sliding past each other at about 40 millimeters a year, a little less than 2 inches. 

During the drill, participants will be told to 'drop, cover and hold on' - fall to the ground, cover your head and hold on to a stable object

During the drill, participants will be told to 'drop, cover and hold on' - fall to the ground, cover your head and hold on to a stable object

'Doesn't sound like a lot, but over the years, that builds up to a lot of stress and motion.'

In 2014, USGS led a study which found that by 2043, there will be a 72 per cent chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or larger in California.

Mr Schwartz said: 'That's a pretty high number. 

CALIFORNIA'S 'BIG ONE'

In order to find out the potential for earthquakes in the California-Nevada region researchers look at the earthquake potential score (EPS) of earthquakes within a 100km (62 miles) radius of the centre of Los Angeles.

Since 1933 there have been 721 earthquakes in this region, 81 of which had magnitudes greater than 6.

The last big earthquake in the region was the Northridge earthquake of 1994, and the one before that was the San Fernando earthquake 23 years earlier in 1971. 

Researchers calculated region's earthquake probability score (EPS) for an earthquake greater than magnitude 6 is 77.5 per cent

Researchers calculated region's earthquake probability score (EPS) for an earthquake greater than magnitude 6 is 77.5 per cent

The one before that was in 1971 and the previous one before that was in 1933.

This suggests that the interval times between the major events around Los Angeles are between 23 and 28 years.

Researchers calculated region's earthquake probability score (EPS) for an earthquake greater than magnitude 6 is 77.5 per cent. 

This means it is more than three quarters of the way there to another big quake - suggesting it could happen in as little as six years time.

In order to find out the potential for earthquakes in the California-Nevada region researchers look at the EPS of earthquakes within a 100km (62 miles) radius of the centre of Los Angeles

In order to find out the potential for earthquakes in the California-Nevada region researchers look at the EPS of earthquakes within a 100km (62 miles) radius of the centre of Los Angeles

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'The biggest concern is the Hayward fault because it sits geographically in the centre of the Bay Area. It's the most densely populated.

'There are 2 million people directly on top of it. When it has an earthquake, it will affect the 8 million people or so living in the greater Bay Area.'

During the drill, participants will be told to 'drop, cover and hold on.'

A post on the USGS website advised: 'Drop where you are onto your hands and knees, then crawl for cover under a nearby sturdy desk or table and hold on to it securely'

A post on the USGS website advised: 'Drop where you are onto your hands and knees, then crawl for cover under a nearby sturdy desk or table and hold on to it securely'

A post on the USGS website advised: 'Drop where you are onto your hands and knees, then crawl for cover under a nearby sturdy desk or table and hold on to it securely.

'If you are not near a desk or table, crawl against an interior wall, then protect your head and neck with your arms.

'Avoid exterior walls, windows, hanging objects, mirrors, tall furniture, large appliances and kitchen cabinets filled with heavy objects or glass.'

PLANS FOR 'THE BIG ONE' 

Federal, state and military officials have been working together to draft plans to be followed when the 'Big One' happens.

These contingency plans reflect deep anxiety about the potential gravity of the looming disaster: upward of 14,000 people dead in the worst-case scenarios, 30,000 injured, thousands left homeless and the region's economy setback for years, if not decades.

As a response, what planners envision is a deployment of civilian and military personnel and equipment that would eclipse the response to any natural disaster that has occurred so far in the US.

There would be waves of cargo planes, helicopters and ships, as well as tens of thousands of soldiers, emergency officials, mortuary teams, police officers, firefighters, engineers, medical personnel and other specialists.

'The response will be orders of magnitude larger than Hurricane Katrina or Super Storm Sandy,' said Lt. Col. Clayton Braun of the Washington State Army National Guard.

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