Business
Firm Foresees Record Growth Amid Fiscal Imbalances For Nigeria
Nigeria will return to growth path in 2021 but external and fiscal imbalances will pose downside risks to the economy, sigma pensions Limited has predicated.
Sigma Pensions Limited, in its report released on Monday titled ‘Nigeria 2021 outlook: A return to normalcy, but tough policy choices lie ahead’, noted that Nigeria continued to grapple with the aftershocks of the coronavirus recession as external and fiscal imbalances propagate negative shocks across the exchange rate and inflation channel.
The report said resulting macroeconomic turmoil would require a return to credible policy settings, implying that more than ever before, the direction of policy responses would be crucial.
It said, “As with the global environment, we expect Nigeria’s economy to experience a V-shaped bounce back from a recession in 2020 as the removal of most COVID-19 restrictions should benefit the non-oil sector where the restrictions hurt activities badly.
“That said, oil output is likely to remain in recession as compliance with OPEC+ curbs restrains oil production to 1.7-1.8mbpd, a development likely to remain in place until H2 2021.
“The recovery in growth is where the good news ends. We view the combination of still weak oil exports and a resurgence in import demand pointing to large external imbalances over 2021.”
Given current policy settings around the exchange rate, the report saw limited options for financing the looming current account deficit and expected naira weakness over the year.
It said, “Alongside these FX pressures, we see soaring food prices, occasioned by an underwhelming 2020 crop harvest, border closures, higher electricity tariffs and petrol prices (following the move to remove gasoline subsidies) as fuelling a surge in inflation towards 16 per cent levels in 2021 (2020e: Avg. 13.2 per cent).
“Though the CBN has ignored inflationary pressures and muddled through the FX situation over 2020, we think the economy’s return to growth and the need to stem the widening parallel market premiums will drive a shift to monetary tightening at some point over 2021.”
According to the report, fiscal imbalances loom large for the second consecutive year with the Federal Government proposing another record deficit (N5.2tn) to be financed via large foreign and domestic borrowings.
It said in 2020, the liquidity fallout from CBN’s decision to bifurcate domestic Treasury bill markets spurred a rally across naira assets.
The report said, “In 2021, we think financing the projected fiscal deficit alongside CBN’s recently introduced CBN special bills could help drain the remaining portion of the large liquidity overhang.
“Accordingly, we expect the rebalancing across Nigeria’s financial markets to run its course over 2021, implying less-liquid conditions.
Business
Food Vendors, Others Relocate To New Site At PH Airport
The raging controversy between the Port Harcourt International Airport Management and restaurants/canteen operators and theirallies over relocation has been brought under control, as the operators have commenced relocation to their structures at the new site.
Recall that there had been serious feud over a directive by the Manager of the airport, Mr. Michael Area, for food vendors and their allies to relocate to the new site.
They insisted that the new site was too distant and hence, would negatively affect patronage from customers, with possible loss.
They further also insisted that it wouldcost them much money to put up another structure, given the economic situation in the country, since the airport management did not build any structure for them, apart from providing the empty land they have to also pay for.
The situation had led to flexing of muscles, which made the Airport Manager to order for sealing of all shops, resulting in scarcity of food, as airport users could not find a place to eat, apart from the only Genesis fast food spot available.
As at last Friday, The Tide observed that most of the food vendors had transferred their structures to the new place, and had started doing business there already.
Meanwhile, customers have started settling down at the new location as they were seen patronising shops for foods and drinks, in spite of the distance.
Few of the remaining structures at the old site, The Tide further gathered, will also be removed as quickly as possible, and the owners are making efforts to get funds for the job to be done.
One of them, Mrs Aka Love explained that she was going to relocate to the new place before the end of March.
Currently, business activities at the old site have come to null, as the place which was usually a beehive of food, drinks and relaxation, has completely winded down.
By: Corlins Walter
Business
MOWCA Strengthens Maritime Crime Prevention
Secretary General of the Maritime Organisation of West and Central Africa (MOWCA), Dr. Paul Adalikwu, has stepped up interaction with the United States Government to lift restrictions placed on some member countries allegedly implicated in illicit shipping activities.
Adalikwu, who led a delegation from the MOWCA Secretariat to the US Embassy in Abidjan for a first leg of the strategic consultation aimed at promoting seamless participation of MOWCA countries in international trade within the global maritime space, reiterated the organisation’s commitment to the best ethical and lawful maritime practices.
Addressing the U.S Ambassador to Côte d’Ivoire, H.E Mrs Jessica Davis Ba, the MOWCA SG stated the organisation’s interest in promoting the International Ship and Port facility Security (ISPS) code which aims at enhancing security of vessels and their ports of call.
He expressed the commitment of MOWCA in promoting environmentally friendly, safe and cost effective shipping without any encumbrance that may limit the economic potential of member countries.
Dr Adalikwu recalled that at the instance of the U.S. Department of State invitation, MOWCA participated in the 2023 Registry Information Sharing Compact (RISC) Conference in Larnaca, Cyprus, on February 28–March 1, 2023, and a virtual meeting held on June 6 2023, with Mrs Jennifer Chalmers, Officer in change of Counterproliferation Initiative.
He recalled The U.S. DOS willingness to support MOWCA’s effort for preventive maritime security through the establishment of the Center for Information and Communication (CINFOCOM) with the aim to ensure a maritime situational awareness domain within MOWCA’s member states’ waters.
He added that MOWCA under his watch is committed to training and retraining of maritime practitioners and experts to enhance the human capital capabilities of member states.
The CINFOCOM will help prevent transnational crimes committed at sea like sanctions evasion by North Korea and other state actors, who exploit poor enforcement due diligence by ship open registries to circumvent United Nations and U.S. trade restrictions.
By: Nkpemenyie Mcdominic, Lagos
Business
Nigeria’s Public Debt Hits N97.3trn – DMO
The Debt Management Office (DMO) has hinted that Nigeria’s public debt increased by 10.7 per cent from N87.87 trillion in the third quarter of last year, to N97.34 trillion as at December 31, 2023.
DMO, in an update data released last Friday, said the increase in the debt stock was largely due to new domestic borrowing by the Federal Government to part finance the deficit in the 2024 Appropriation Act and disbursements by multilateral and bilateral lenders.
The office noted that the N97.3 trillion public debt comprises of domestic debt of N59.12 trillion and external debt of N38.22 trillion. The sum of $3.5 billion was used to service external debt during the review period.
“Nigeria’s Public Debt Stock as at December 31, 2023 was N97.34trillion or $108.229 billion. This amount comprises the domestic and external debt stocks of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN), the 36 States Governments, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
“There was an increase of N9.43 trillion over the comparative figure for September, 2023, which was largely due to new domestic borrowing by the FGN to part finance the deficit in the 2024 Appropriation Act and disbursements by multilateral and bilateral lenders.
“At N59.12 trillion, total domestic debt accounted for 61 percent of the total public debt stock, while external debt at N38.22 trillion accounted for the balance of 39 percent.
“Consistent with the debt management strategy, Nigeria’s external debt stock was skewed in favour of loans from multilateral (49.77 percent) and bilateral lenders (14.02 percent) or total of 63.79 percent which are mostly concessional and semi-concessional.
“Whilst the DMO continues to employ best practice in public debt management, the recent and on-going efforts of the fiscal authorities to shore up revenue will support debt sustainability”, DMO stated.
By: Corlins Walter
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